Frustrated Governor Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun State has vowed not to take things easy with members of the National Assembly from his state planning to thwart his ambition for a second term in office henceforth.
In a letter, titled Pulling down the House to Protect a Corner: A Note of Caution dated 18th January 2014, and addressed to the legislators and copied top party members of the All progressives Congress (APC), the governor said he would bring his official powers against the lawmakers for their disrespect.
There has been a lingering crisis of supremacy between the governor and former Governor Olusegun Osoba, who is also a party leader in the state. The political battle between the two is fast polarising the party structure, with many, including the legislators, supporting Osoba.
Huhuonline.com learnt that the trouble first began when, in a bid to take over full control of the state, Amosun upstaged Osoba in political appointments and offices. Osoba no longer has even a councillor, as all his nominees were discarded by the governor.
In the heat of the crisis, the legislators converged last week and passed a vote of no confidence on Amosun, declaring that they would not support his second term ambition, a declaration that infuriated the governor, who defected into the party from the All Nigeria People Party (ANPP).In the letter warning the lawmakers, Amosun accused them of planning to render the state ungovernable for him, saying he would do everything to protect the mandate given to him by the people of the state. He revealed that he had briefed all security agencies in the state to be more vigilant and prevent any breach of peace in the state, and therefore warned the lawmakers to tread softly within the ambit of the law or face the consequences.
“It is with considerable hesitation that I write this letter to you, especially a few minutes after I called and spoke with you on the phone over the crisis arising from your programme in Ewekoro Local Government Area on Thursday, 16th January 2014”, Amosun wrote.
“However, after a thorough consideration of information obtained on the same issue prior to and subsequent to the telephone conversation with you from some mutual friends, security agencies and state officials, some of whom you had also spoken with on the same issue, I decided to reduce my thoughts to writing in order to put the issues in clear perspective and also for record purposes. It has even become more imperative to write because I have since realised that the positions and approaches you espouse in discussions with me are always at great variance with your true disposition on the same issues, both in words and actions, while with other people.
“Your different and inconsistent narratives around the event have now confirmed to me that what happened in Ewekoro was indeed part of a premeditated, choreographed and coordinated but needless crisis in our great party, All Progressives Congress (APC), in Ogun State with the National Assembly members elected on the platform of the party as the major agents provocateur, working in concert with other elements within and outside the party. By the benevolence of God and the support of the good People of Ogun Central, I was elected a Senator in 2003 and will continue to hold in the very high esteem the institution of the Senate, in particular, and the National Assembly of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in general.
“This letter is directed to you as the contact point for your colleagues from Ogun State in the National Assembly because you are the one currently occupying the same seat in the Senate that I occupied a decade ago. It is regrettable that despite all my efforts to warm up to you and your colleagues since your nomination as party candidates and up till now, it is obvious that your group has always had scant regard for me and my office because you believe that I played no role in your emergence as party candidates and subsequent elections in 2011 and will play no role in your re-election. This explains why you continue to rebuff all my initiatives to make us work together as a team in the overall interest of our party and the good People of Ogun State. Nonetheless, I remain undeterred in the search for unity. You are therefore at liberty to share the content of this letter with your colleagues”.
Itemising all the issues for discussion, he wrote:
“1. My Understanding of the issues. In the last few months, I have received security reports and information from credible sources, including party faithful, leaders, mutual friends and utterances directly emanating from your group, indicating that you and your colleagues were planning to precipitate a crisis in our party in pursuit of your personal agenda.
“I dismissed the reports with a wave of hands in the knowledge that no member of the party, much more so members of the National Assembly, would do anything that will impact negatively on our administration’s mission to rebuild our dear state. Besides, I thought the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC) from the merger of the legacy parties, including the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) on which platform we were all elected into various offices, would address outstanding integration challenges. It is my belief that the new platform, the APC, offers an opportunity of a fresh beginning.
“However, the unfortunate events of the last few weeks, with their intensity and frequency, have lent credence to reports and information I earlier disregarded. Two instances will suffice here. The violence that accompanied the botched attempt by your group on Thursday 9th January 2014 to foist a handpicked so called “Harmonisation Committee” on the party in the state now seems to be the opening glee in a well-scripted series. For the avoidance of doubt, the “Harmonisation Committee”, even if properly constituted, clearly has no role in the forthcoming party membership registration exercise.
“The second incident was the event of Thursday, 16th January 2014 in Ewekoro Local Government Area, organised by you to purportedly sensitise party members in Ogun Central Senatorial District on the forthcoming party registration exercise but ostensibly a manifestation of another scene in the series. It is curious that a day in which the interim National Chairman of our party, Chief Bisi Akande, was being honoured in Lagos was the day you chose to hold your sensitisation event. I was at the ceremony with members of the State Executive Council, Speaker, other members of the State Assembly and Chairmen of our Local Government Areas, including that of Ewekoro. These two events are just exactly one week apart and in between there were other activities by your group all aimed at achieving the desired objectives. I understand that these actions and incidents, that are part of a larger plot that will be highlighted below, are designed to achieve two primary objectives:
“The first objective is the quest of your group to control the structure of our party in the state, commencing with the hijack of the party membership registration exercise, hence the attempt to foist a “Harmonisation Committee” on the party in the State. The second objective is the desire of all the National Assembly members from our state and some members of the House of Assembly to secure automatic second-term tickets for the general elections in 2015, without regard to the opinions of the generality of members of our great party in Ogun State.
In order to get the support of the unwary, these personal agenda of the very few have been couched and packaged as altruistic party issues and deliberately orchestrated to attract national attention.“2. The plot against the state. The plot to achieve the narrow objectives of your group has many elements that I initially considered to be unlikely and far-fetched. However, your recent actions and utterances have all the trappings of these elements with the precision and approach foretold. Let me highlight some of these elements that will certainly not be strange to you: instigation of pockets of violence to create a sense of disunity in our party and insecurity in the state as a whole. This approach will include deliberately perpetrating arsons and symbolic harms on the property and persons of some members of your group and then blame the actions on me and our administration.
“Demonisation of my person and our administration through a well-oiled smear campaign in the media that will evoke the ugly memory of the immediate past. Already, some of your supporters, especially allies in the State Assembly, have been instigated to start circulating text messages alleging threats to their lives. Distraction of the attention of the Government from governance so that the programmes and projects that have endeared the Administration to the good People of Ogun State will be stalled. The intended consequence is to reduce the popularity of the government with the populace. Blackmailing me and the National Leadership of our party to undermine the integrity of the party leadership to intervene as impartial umpires, should the need arise. Generally making the state ungovernable, including precipitating crisis in the State House of Assembly through a plan to forcefully change the leadership and continuous disruption of legislative proceedings.
“A further orchestration of the ‘crises’ aimed at creating a window for your group to move motions in the two chambers of the National Assembly designed to embarrass the State Government. Disruption of the impending party membership registration exercise, knowing full well that the exercise may expose the shallow followership of your group across the state. Even this noble exercise that is expected to develop our great party will also not be spared of the smear campaign to discredit the process. Joining forces with the opposition, who are known ‘Masters of Violence’ in an unholy alliance to help re-enact the immediate inglorious past.
“The overall thrust is to force a negotiation to secure an undeserved advantage that could not be otherwise achieved through the internal party democracy. What is more disturbing is that in this venture, no tool is considered too crude to use, no weapon too unconventional to deploy, and no approach too demeaning to adopt. I learnt that you and your colleagues have indeed been boasting that the nationwide destruction of our great party, the APC, will be kick-started from Ogun State.
“3. The Implications for the State and our Party (APC). It is important to always remember where our state was, before the inception of our administration on 29th May 2011 so that your ambitions to control the party and secure your second term in office at all costs do not becloud your sense of judgement. The implications of your actions are grave and are far greater for our State and the party, than for me as the Governor or our administration. Whatever offices we hold now, many have done so before us and many will still do after. Therefore, the larger interest of our state must take overriding position at all times. Power is transient and all of us will be accountable to the people, posterity and God Almighty”.
He noted that the implications of these actions include rollback of the achievements attained by the party and his administration in the onerous task of rebuilding Ogun State, particularly the widely acknowledged peace and security that pervade the state. He added that the state has received many national and international honours and awards in this regard, including the recent one — the Most Secure State in Nigeria (2013) — by CLEEN Foundation, a foremost Non-Governmental Organisation with focus on security in the country.
“Some of the achievements, such as increase in the state’s Internally Generated Revenue from paltry N750 Million monthly to about N3 Billion, will be undermined. The image of our party (APC) as a party of peace and progress will be negatively affected”, he wrote on.
“It will amount to taking the support of our people for granted. Worse still, your actions, if not curbed, will lead to an unfortunate return to the inglorious era of the immediate past”.
In conclusion, he wrote: “My Brother, you will recall some of my efforts and initiatives to forge unity and harmony in our party. These are well-documented and predate my assumption of office as Governor. Since inception, I have remained committed to the vision of building a virile, united and harmonious party with equity, justice and inclusiveness. As a member of the 5th Senate myself, I have constantly extended my hands of fellowship to you and your colleagues, including my personal invitations to all our programmes. The most recent initiative to achieve greater unity in the party was the formation of Consultative and Advisory Councils in all our twenty Local Government Areas. This body comprises party elders, elected members (including National Assembly and State Assembly Members), and political appointees. It provides platform for closer interaction amongst all the stakeholders, fosters unity and engenders mutual understanding. The composition, as you know, is inclusive. Regrettably, you and your colleagues have declined participation in the activities of the Consultative Assembly in your respective Local Government Areas.
“I remain resolute to building bridges within the party and even beyond. Far from being a sign of weakness, this is a demonstration of our commitment to general peace and security in the state. Any discord in the state or any critical segment or group, political or otherwise, takes away from this commitment. I swore to an oath which primarily requires me to protect life and property of all citizens and residents of Ogun State and remain unwavering in our commitment to ensure that the Mission to Rebuild Ogun State continues unhindered. While I will continue to make overtures for peace and pursue initiatives to forge party unity and harmony, I will not abdicate my responsibility as the Chief Security Officer of the State.
“In this respect, I have re-emphasised to the chairmen of the Local Government Areas that they will be held accountable for any breach of peace in their respective areas. Furthermore, I have briefed, as always, all security agencies in the State to be more vigilant and prevent any breach of peace in our State. In the same vein, my expectation is that all political gladiators will conduct themselves peacefully within the ambit of the law as any breach of peace and security that our administration jealously treasures will be viewed seriously. For emphasis, the full wrath of law will be visited on anyone whose conduct is capable of returning our State to the inglorious days of the immediate past.
“The citizens of the state have made it clear to us that they enjoy the current peaceful atmosphere that pervades the State in almost three years of our administration and that they will not accept any further ugly development that casts a dark shadow on our atate. As the custodian of their legitimate and freely given mandate, I intend to keep faith with them in this regard. It is my hope that your actions and utterances henceforth will be in consonance with this simple wish of the good People of Ogun State. It is not too late for you and your group to retrace your steps by putting a stop to the plot against the state and allow good reasons prevail.
“Democracy may not be perfect for human and societal organisation, but it is not for nothing that it remains the most preferred form of government worldwide. It has its tenets, the most profound being that it is a game of numbers. In this wise, I urge you and your colleagues to take full advantage of the forthcoming registration of party members by mobilising your supporters to register. This is the path true democrats adopt and it is also the path of honour.
“It is certainly more honourable than following the script of “what we can’t get, we destroy”. The plan to foment trouble in our great party, the APC, while hobnobbing and nurturing opposition parties as alternative platforms to realise your personal ambitions is an ill-wind that blows no one any good. I intend to continue to devote substantial focus to what the good People of Ogun State elected me to do – good governance – without allowing active partisan politics to become a major pre-occupation and distraction, as some would rather wish.
Once again, my Dear Senator Obadara, please accept the assurances, as always, of my highest regards”.
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The Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Ola Olukoyede, has offered whistleblowers between 2.5 per cent and 5 per cent of recovered stolen Nigerian assets held abroad for information that leads to their recovery.
Olukoyede disclosed this on Wednesday while delivering a lecture at the Cambridge International Symposium on Economic Crime in the United Kingdom.
According to him, the ability of EFCC operatives to trace assets, cooperation from the judiciary and access to credible intelligence have played important roles in the commission’s success in securing non-conviction-based forfeiture orders.
He also described the EFCC as having some of the best investigators in the world and stressed the importance of protecting and encouraging whistleblowers.
He said anyone with credible information about stolen Nigerian assets taken or hidden anywhere in the world could receive between 2.5 per cent and 5 per cent of the recovered assets as an incentive, with payment made after the recovery.
Olukoyede further revealed that the EFCC had forfeited cash and assets worth more than $500 million to the Federal Government within the past three years.
He cited several cases involving the recovery and forfeiture of assets, including cases linked to a former Chairman of the Central Bank of Nigeria and a former Attorney-General of the Federation.
The EFCC chairman explained that the commission is legally empowered to seek the forfeiture of suspected proceeds of crime by applying to the High Court for an order. He said the process is similar to procedures used in countries such as Australia and Canada.
Olukoyede also recalled a case involving an aircraft allegedly acquired by an individual who was accused of receiving about $30 million in bribes in connection with a power project. He said the aircraft was forfeited about three months ago and had subsequently been added to the presidential air fleet.
He also referred to a property containing about 753 housing units that was forfeited from a former CBN governor, against whom the EFCC has filed criminal charges in three courts.
Speaking about the immediate past Attorney-General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, Olukoyede said the EFCC opened an investigation following allegations of abuse of office. He claimed that investigators traced about 57 properties to Malami and that approximately 48 of them had been forfeited.
The EFCC chairman further mentioned the forfeiture of a private university allegedly linked to a director in the Federal Ministry of Health. According to him, the official voluntarily surrendered the property following the commission’s investigation.
Olukoyede said the measures demonstrate the importance of asset tracing, international cooperation, credible intelligence and whistleblower protection in the fight against financial crime and the recovery of stolen public assets.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has raised concerns over the growing volume of imported petrol entering Nigeria, warning that it could be forced to export more of its own production if the trend continues.
The refinery said imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) made up roughly 43 per cent of the petrol supplied to the Nigerian market in July. It argued that the development was creating serious difficulties for a domestic refinery with the capacity to produce enough fuel for the country.
Dangote Refinery explained that it has maintained sizeable petrol reserves since commencing operations to ensure that consumers across Nigeria have access to a reliable supply. Keeping those reserves, it noted, requires substantial expenditure on storage, transportation and working capital.
However, the refinery said the continued granting of import licences without adequate information about expected import volumes has made it increasingly difficult to determine how much petrol should be produced and stored for the local market.
The company said holding large quantities of petrol becomes financially burdensome when there is no certainty about how much imported fuel will compete for the same market. It therefore considers exporting surplus stocks a more commercially viable option than allowing them to remain in storage indefinitely.
According to the refinery, increased exports in recent months should not be interpreted as evidence that Nigeria lacks sufficient refining capacity. Instead, the exports are being driven by excess stock resulting from unpredictable import volumes.
Dangote Refinery maintained that it remains fully committed to supplying the Nigerian market and has the capacity to meet or surpass the country's petrol requirements. It said its decision to export surplus products was aimed at managing inventory efficiently and avoiding unnecessary storage and financing expenses.
The refinery also warned that market disruptions caused by excessive imports could make it harder for domestic refiners to accurately predict demand. Any resulting supply problems, it said, should not automatically be blamed on local refineries.
It urged regulators and other industry stakeholders to improve transparency around petrol imports and strengthen coordination within the downstream petroleum market.
The company argued that policies that give greater support to domestic refining would help Nigeria reduce its dependence on imported fuel, conserve foreign exchange, strengthen energy security and maximise the economic benefits of investments in local refining infrastructure.
Dangote Refinery said it remains prepared to supply the country but stressed that a more predictable and transparent market environment is necessary for efficient production and inventory management.
Business
In The Spotlight
A group of heartless carpetbaggers have captured the Nigerian state, and it appears that they, their biological and political descendants, will hold the levers of government and access to Nigeria’s commonwealth for a long time to come.
When you consider news reports of how previous and current state actors steal public funds, buy choice properties in the toniest districts of Nigeria’s major cities, acquire private jets, and even establish private universities, you wonder if some people have more than two heads, to adopt a Yoruba phrase.
Either because of an inability to deliver the greatest good to the greatest number of Nigerian citizens, or by intention, the political elite have kept the people poor, causing them to depend on the largeness of heart of the same elite to meet their existential needs.
That explains why poor, downtrodden, and unconnected Nigerians eagerly collect crumbs of measly N5,000, rice, gari and whatever else the politicians offer to obtain their election votes or acquiescence after rigging the elections.
When watching an economically disadvantaged individual tell a politician who is seeking to become a legislator the good news that his wife just had a new baby, and he needed to prepare for the naming ceremony, it felt like the oppressed poor were enabling his oppressor to further oppress him.
It was like the classic case of Stockholm syndrome, of victims collaborating with their “captors” to cement the oppressive stranglehold that they already had over the state and the commonwealth of the nation, thus unwittingly arresting their own future development.
A running mate to a former governorship candidate in a Southwestern state hilariously regaled Nigerians with the story of how constituents would have raided all the alcoholic drinks in his refrigerator in the early hours of the morning, even before he woke from the hectic campaign tour of the previous day.
The political elite have practically cornered the Nigerian state for themselves, children, tribesmen and acolytes, and have devised a way to admit only those that they have found to be loyal, or pliable, into their rank of oppressors.
The oppression of the citizens of Nigeria is easily accomplished because of the high illiteracy level amongst the poor masses. The use of the weapon of illiteracy is more evident in Northern Nigeria, whose political leaders somehow turn a blind eye to the illiteracy and underdevelopment of their people.
In 2024, UNICEF revealed that out of Nigeria’s 18.3 million out-of-school children, about 12.1 million, or 66 per cent, were resident in the Northwest and Northeast regions. Yet, instead of expanding educational facilities and opportunities, some Northern governors are arranging mass weddings for children who are hardly out of their teen years.
And this is not to deny the weaponisation of illiteracy even in Obafemi Awolowo’s Western Region, which is regarded as the Athens of Nigeria, after its pre-Independence head start of free, universal and compulsory primary school education.
As if he had a premonition that Nigeria’s so-called democrats would eventually compromise education, to the detriment of the lowest and marginalised masses, that Karl Marx described as the “lumpen proletariat”, French political thinker Montesquieu argued a long time ago that “It is in a republican government that the whole power of education is required.”
Western Nigeria’s free education scheme was gradually abandoned from the days of the Second Republic when some Yoruba members of President Shehu Shagari’s political party knocked it off its bottom with the argument that “qualitative” education was better than “free” education.
It is more than a shame that a free, universal and compulsory primary school education scheme was abandoned under President Shagari, who not only was a trained teacher, but had a career as a teacher before his political career.
Awolowo had warned Nigeria’s political elite with the following quip: “The children of the poor that you failed to educate will not let your children sleep peacefully.” The insecurity that currently occurs in nearly every part of Nigeria only drives Awolowo’s point home.
Probably the realm of the Nigerian republic that has been most complicit with the carpetbagger political elite is the media, whose members either serve the elites as press secretaries who kill media brushfires, or editors who either run planted stories, or spike stories that the politicians do not want published.
The media is so compromised that it can hardly perform those responsibilities assigned to it by Section 22 of the Nigerian Constitution, which are to “be free to uphold the fundamental objectives contained in (Chapter II of the Constitution) and uphold the responsibility and accountability of the Government to the people.”
Some apologists have argued on behalf of the media that the political elite have so run the economy aground that the media, which can only thrive as commercial enterprises within Nigeria’s quasi-capitalist economy, cannot stay afloat, especially with the devastating inroads that the digital media are making into their audience, advertising revenue and profit.
The absence of regional economies, the argument goes, prevents the emergence of regional newspapers that can thrive on advertising revenues from regional companies, the way it obtains in the economies of North America and Western Europe. Many Nigerian newspapers, that are essentially regional, often pretend to be national to receive advertising revenue from companies whose market is national.
Two other collaborators of the political elite are the election management agencies and the judiciary at both the national and sub-national levels of government. The conspiracy between these agencies and the political elite is almost like that of Siamese twins conjoined by the belly button.
After the election management agencies may have deliberately bungled (especially) governorship and legislative house elections, and declared false reports, the losers, who felt that they won the election, would then approach the temple of justice, with significant financial inducement to ask for justice(?).
From that point on, the justice that both contestants hope to corruptly obtain could swing according to the heft of the naira in the Ghana-must-go bag that they will be hauling into the chambers of the denizens of the corrupted judiciary.
Thus, the “award” of electoral justice is “a matter of cash”, to quote Basi, the protagonist of “Basi & Co”, the television sitcom produced by environmental activist Ken Saro-Wiwa, who himself was denied justice from the judiciary that served the regime of General Sani Abacha, Nigeria’s most notorious military dictator.
In Nigeria, the lines of separation of powers that demarcate the duties of the three arms of government –the legislative, executive and judiciary– and the checks and balances that empower each arm to check the others have become almost irredeemably blurred.
As legislators use constituency projects as a ploy to carry out the functions of the executive, the president issues executive orders that are essentially legislative in nature. Though the judiciary does not perform the duties of the other arms, it fails to check them as it indulgently winks at their excesses.
If those who are regarded as Nigeria’s political elite really know what is in their enlightened self-interest and would like to protect the future of their descendants from what Thomas Hobbes described as a short, brutish and nasty existence, they will use their current privilege to correct the evil they have done to Nigerians.
They must urgently redeem the future before it delivers violence against their children.
By Lekan Sote
In The Spotlight
Lagos alone is worth more than Botswana, Namibia, Rwanda and Mauritius combined.
Let that sink in.
With an economy of N41.17tn — about $102bn in 2021 — Lagos State dwarfed the entire gross domestic products of four countries. Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Bayelsa sit on oil wealth that funds nations. Ogun, Anambra and Imo churn out goods, services and commerce that would make small economies jealous.
By the numbers, Nigeria’s states are giants.
But walk the streets of Lagos, and you will still find mothers cooking with firewood. Drive through Port Harcourt, and you will see communities drinking water polluted by the same oil that makes the state’s GDP glow. Visit Umuahia, Abeokuta, or Minna and ask the average trader what “trillion-naira economy” means to her dinner table.
The answer is: nothing.
That viral video telling you “10 Nigerian states are richer than countries” is both true and a lie. True, because the 2021 BudgIT figures don’t lie — Lagos at N41.17trn, Rivers at N7.96trn, and so on. A lie, because those numbers are GDP, not prosperity. They measure how much economic activity happens _in_ a place, not how much of it reaches the people who live there.
A country with $7,778 GDP per capita, like Botswana, will still feed its citizens better than a state with $102bn in total output but $2,058 per capita, like Nigeria. A state can host a port, an oil rig, and a tech hub, yet fail to build a hospital that works.
So, the real question isn’t “Which state is bigger than which country?”
The real question, and the one our governors should lose sleep over, is this: When your economy is bigger than a nation, why are your people still living like they have nothing?
In this edition of The Bottomline, we follow the money from GDP to the gutter — and ask why Nigeria’s trillion-naira states have not become trillion-naira lives.
The viral numbers are not new. They were lifted straight from BudgIT’s 2022 State of States report and reflected 2021 estimates: Lagos at N41.17tn, followed by Rivers at N7.96tn, Akwa Ibom at N7.77tn, Imo at N7.68tn, Delta at N6.19tn, Anambra at N5.14tn, Ondo at N5.10tn, Ogun at N5.03tn, Bayelsa at N4.63tn and Niger at N4.58tn.
The trick is in the timing. To pitch those 2021 figures against 2025 country GDPs is statistical fraud. Nigeria has since rebased. The NBS moved the base year from 2010 to 2019, and the whole map shifted. Lagos itself has moved on: its 2025 _Lagos Economic Development Update_ puts the state at N43.06tn in 2023, with forecasts of N54.77tn for 2024 and N66.47tn for 2025. Those are projections, not fresh NBS post-rebasing observations, but they tell you the direction: up.
There is no debate that Lagos is Nigeria’s economic engine. From a colonial port to federal capital until 1991, it never lost momentum. Today, trade, manufacturing, ports, telecoms, tech, entertainment, real estate and finance all cluster in just 3,345 square kilometres. Compare that footprint to Botswana’s 581,730 sq km, Namibia’s 825,615 sq km, Rwanda’s 26,338 sq km, and Mauritius’ 2,040 sq km. Yet in 2021, Lagos’ $102 billion economy was several times larger than Botswana’s $19.9bn, Namibia’s $15.1bn, Rwanda’s $16.4bn, and Mauritius’ $16.2bn, according to 2025 World Bank figures.
That comparison is legitimate. The conclusion people draw from it is not.
GDP tells you how much value was produced in a territory. It does not tell you who owns it, who earns it, or whether the roads work, the lights stay on, or the hospital has drugs.
A state can run a trillion-naira economy and still have mothers boiling water on firewood. A country can have a smaller GDP and deliver a better life. Look at the per capita numbers: Botswana at $7,778, Namibia at $5,309, Mauritius at $11,819. Nigeria sits at about $2,058. Even Rwanda, at just $773 per capita, has pushed its $3-a-day poverty rate down to 38.6 per cent — proof that size is not destiny.
The oil states expose the fraud most brutally. Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Bayelsa rank high because petroleum inflates their GDP. But oil wealth does not flow into state coffers in equal measure, and it certainly does not flow into household wallets. BudgIT’s own fiscal sustainability index proves this. In 2022, Rivers topped overall fiscal performance despite Lagos having the biggest economy. A big economy without revenue discipline, jobs, and services is just a billboard.
Nigeria does not have a GDP problem. We have a translation problem.
We have pockets of enormous economic power. Lagos. Rivers. Akwa Ibom. Ogun. Anambra. Delta. The output is real. What is missing is the bridge between that output and ordinary life.
Until economic activity creates real jobs, until IGR rises and addiction to federal allocation falls, until infrastructure supports production instead of strangling it, those trillion-naira figures will remain a cruel joke.
So let the video go viral. Let Lagos be “bigger than Botswana”.
But governors, commissioners, and citizens should ask only one question:
If my state can outproduce a country, why can’t it out-deliver a decent life for the people who call it home?
Until we answer that, we are not rich. We are just big.
By Raphael Mbamalu