Editorial: Does Tinubu Deserve a Second Term?

As Nigeria moves toward the 2027 presidential election, one question will become harder to avoid: Has Bola Ahmed Tinubu done enough to justify another four years in office? The answer cannot be found in campaign slogans, partisan applause or reflexive condemnation.Nor should it be reduced to a simple verdict on whether the president has made mistakes. Every government does.

The more consequential question is this: After four years of painful economic restructuring, has the Tinubu administration produced enough tangible improvement in the lives of Nigerians to warrant continuity? That is the test. And it is a test the government cannot pass with statistics alone.

The reform gamble

Tinubu inherited an economy under enormous strain: fuel subsidies that drained public finances, multiple foreign-exchange windows, weak government revenues, infrastructure deficits, insecurity and mounting fiscal pressures. His response was dramatic. The petrol subsidy was removed. The foreign-exchange regime was overhauled. Other reforms followed, many of them politically hazardous and immediately painful.

There is little dispute that these measures came at a heavy social cost. But international assessments have also acknowledged improvements in Nigeria's macroeconomic position, including stronger external buffers and greater economic resilience.

That matters.But stabilization is only the beginning.A government cannot ask citizens to endure economic pain indefinitely on the promise that prosperity is just around the corner. The real question is what comes next.

From reform to prosperity

For decades, Nigeria has had a frustrating habit of celebrating economic activity while ordinary citizens remain trapped in economic insecurity.GDP rises. Government revenues increase. Foreign reserves improve.Yet families still ask the same basic questions: Can we afford food? Can we pay the rent? Can we find decent work? Can we afford transportation? Can we rely on electricity? Can we send our children to school without going into debt?

Those questions expose the distance between a healthier balance sheet and a healthier society.Nigeria's recent economic numbers provide grounds for cautious optimism. Growth has strengthened, revenues have improved and macroeconomic stability has increased.

But the other side of the ledger is impossible to ignore.Poverty remains extraordinarily high. Food insecurity remains serious. Millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with declining purchasing power, while the economy has yet to generate enough productive employment for a rapidly growing population. That contradiction sits at the heart of the Tinubu presidency.

Nigeria may be becoming more economically stable without yet becoming more economically comfortable.And for the Nigerian household, comfort is not an abstract concept. It is dinner.

The case for continuity

There is a legitimate argument for giving the reforms more time. Structural economic reforms are rarely completed in four years. Removing distortions is easier than building the industries, infrastructure, electricity supply, agricultural productivity and human capital required to replace them.

The Tinubu administration has presented its agenda as a long-term transformation extending across energy, agriculture, education, infrastructure, taxation, transportation and social investment.

Programmes such as NELFUND and the compressed natural gas initiative, alongside power-sector and agricultural reforms, are intended to form part of that broader transition.

The argument for continuity is therefore straightforward:If the first phase was about stopping the bleeding, the next phase must be about rebuilding the patient.But continuity cannot become an entitlement.A second term must be justified by results.

The questions Nigerians should ask

The 2027 election should therefore be less about personalities and more about measurable outcomes.Can the government make food substantially more affordable?

Can agricultural investment produce higher domestic food production rather than another cycle of announcements, launches and ceremonies? Can Nigeria create jobs at the scale demanded by its enormous and youthful population? Can electricity become more reliable and affordable? Can insecurity be reduced enough for farmers to return confidently to their fields and businesses to invest? Can schools and hospitals deliver better services? Can government institutions become more transparent and accountable? And perhaps most importantly:Can Nigerians actually feel the benefits of the economic reforms in their daily lives? These are not opposition questions.They are citizenship questions.

The price of reform

There is an uncomfortable truth that no economic report can erase. For millions of Nigerians, the first years of the Tinubu presidency have been experienced not as a period of macroeconomic stabilization but as a period of higher food bills, expensive transportation, shrinking purchasing power and relentless pressure on household budgets.The administration itself has acknowledged the sacrifices imposed by its reforms.That acknowledgement matters. But so does the patience of the people.

A government cannot continually tell citizens to sacrifice today for a prosperity that remains permanently tomorrow.At some point, the social contract must become visible.If government revenues are rising, Nigerians should see better roads, schools, hospitals, electricity, security and public transportation. If the foreign-exchange market has become more stable, businesses should be able to plan, invest and employ with greater confidence. If agricultural reforms are working, food production and affordability should eventually reflect that progress. Reform must move from the balance sheet to the household.

The real referendum

So, what should Nigerians make of Tinubu's record? The evidence points in more than one direction. On one side are significant economic reforms, improved macroeconomic stability, stronger external buffers and a growth trajectory that international institutions have recognized. On the other are persistent poverty, food insecurity, weak household purchasing power and a shortage of productive jobs. Neither side can simply be wished away. The choice facing Nigerians in 2027 should therefore not be framed as a referendum on whether the president deserves praise or punishment.It should be a referendum on whether the government's programme has produced credible, measurable and broadly shared results—and whether its next phase offers a convincing path from stabilization to prosperity.

That means the administration should come to the electorate with more than speeches.It should present measurable targets for jobs, food prices, electricity, security, education, healthcare, infrastructure and household incomes.

And then it should submit those targets to public scrutiny. Because Nigerians did not vote for economic theory. They voted for a better country.

The question history will ask

Tinubu's central political argument is that Nigeria required difficult structural surgery and that abandoning the reform process midway could jeopardize the gains already achieved. His critics make a different argument: stabilization is not prosperity, and Nigerians cannot eat macroeconomic indicators. Both arguments deserve serious consideration. The decisive issue is what the reforms ultimately deliver.

History will not judge the Tinubu presidency simply by whether it removed fuel subsidies, reformed the foreign-exchange market or increased government revenues. It will ask a much harder question: Did those reforms make Nigeria a better place to live? That is the question that should define the 2027 election.

Not propaganda. Not partisan loyalty. Not the applause of foreign commentators. Not the claims of government or opposition. The answer should come from the lived experience of Nigerians.

Because in the end, the success of any economic reform is measured not in the language of policy documents, but in the life of the ordinary citizen. Can Nigerians eat better? Work better? Travel better? Live more safely? Keep more of what they earn? Give their children a better future? That is the real scoreboard. And that is where the Tinubu presidency will ultimately be judged.